8 CONCLUSION

 

Figure 8.1 Energy market projection

 

There can be little doubt that all of the five RES described above will continue to develop and that the market for each will increase. Future trends have been estimated by many organisations, such as that by Shell shown in figure 8.1. The outcome of such projections does however depend on a complex list of assumptions about demand, supply and political and economic initiatives. The challenges for the future remain unchanged:

· Can new energy sources compensate for reduced availability of fossil fuels?
· Can Carbon Dioxide accumulation in the atmosphere be controlled in time to limit global warming to acceptable levels?

The record to date shows that renewable energy has only just started in terms of energy production, with Wind power showing some initial strength in Europe. It is however essential that the other energy sources continue to be developed in order to provide a balanced economy in terms of:

· Continuity of supply on both daily and annual cycles
· National grid and locally embedded distribution of electricity
· Optimised energy efficiency (e.g. by use of Combined Heat and Power systems with Biomass and Municipal Waste)

Inevitably the cost of each RES will influence its rate of growth. Wind Power has now reached an economy of scale which begins to make it generally competitive for electricity generation, and Biomass (as wood and wastes) continues to be widely used for both heating and electricity. Although direct solar gain in buildings has an important role, this is not measured directly and the statistics for Solar Thermal energy use do not yet show a large impact. Further stimulation of all RES by both incentives and increased public awareness appears to be essential if the above challenges are to be met.