3.4.1.3 Market growth for solar water heating (SWH) systems

The European solar thermal markets have shown substantial growth over the past decade. On average, the glazed collector area in operation increased by 11.7% per year and the market volume (newly installed collector area) grew by 13.6% per year. Adding the roughly 1.6 million m² of glazed collectors used for heating swimming pool water, the total in operation at the end of 2002 can be estimated at 12.3 million m². The target set by the Campaign for Take-Off launched by the European Commission (15 million m2 by 2003) has therefore nearly been reached.

The collector area in operation is highly concentrated in three countries: Germany, Greece and Austria account for more than 80% of the EU total. Relating the glazed collector area in operation to the population, the leading role of Greece (264 m² per 1000 capita) and Austria (203 m²) becomes even more evident, compared with the EU average of 26 m². In recent years there has been a trend towards levelling the big differences between the frontrunners and the countries lagging behind. Spain, Italy and France have been growing faster than the EU average, whereas Austria and Greece have stagnated at a high level. The German market grew very strongly until 2001. Its breakdown in 2002 explains the contraction of the European market in that year.

Glazed collector area (in m²) for 1985-2002

	1985	1990	1995	2000	2001	2002
New systems	393,415	360,799	624,067	1,162,128	1,470,185	1,196,540
Total installed	1,320,735	2,916,102	5,532,569	8,760,320	9,862,500	10,755,842

 

3.4.1.4 Potential

The technical-economical potential for solar thermal is estimated at 1.4 billion m² (EU-15). This capacity would generate 682TWh (58.7Mtoe) of thermal energy per year. This corresponds to:

· 6% of the EU final energy consumption (EU-15);
· More than the final energy consumption of a country like Belgium;
· 30% of the EU oil imports from the Middle East in 1999 (EU-15).

Only 1% of this potential has been realised so far, and most of this in three countries only. The potential for growth in the near future is therefore immense.